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Friday, 11 November 2011

On the brink of war

British government ministers have been told to expect Israeli military action in the wake of the UN watchdog report "as early as Christmas or very early in the new year," the London Daily Mail reported Thursday, Nov. 10. They were told Israel would strike Iran's nuclear sites "sooner rather than later" – with "logistical support" from the US.
I know I've been beating the war drums for quite some time, but this is not going away. Iran is no longer 3 to 5 years out from getting The Bomb. It was six years ago, and the Stuxnet Virus, along with Israel's non-death penalty targeted execution program only delayed it a year or two. Iran NOW has enough fuel for four warheads, and NOW has the delivery, triggering, and targeting mechanisms to place them in Israel at any time.

President Obama is in a tight spot. He vowed that Iran would never be allowed to develop The Bomb. Netanyahu is still being told--at least openly--not to dare to attack Iran unilaterally. But NATO is gearing up for opening a third front in The War on Terror, just in time to re-deploy the troops being sent home from Iraq and Afghanistan--conveniently enough, the two countries that border Iran--along with Pakistan and three Turkish nations.

Who knows where things will go from here. But I can definitely predict:

1) No military drawdown for the US.
2) Higher oil prices.
3) A big drop in Christmas tours to Bethlehem.
4) Since both sides now have missiles capable of hitting the other, what Americans and Russians feared throughout the 50's and 60's is now a real possibility in the Mideast: simultaneous mutual nuclear missile strikes. Unlike in the Cold War, however, the first round will probably use up or degrade each country's total nuclear capacity, leaving each one vulnerable to conventional invasion. We are talking all-out but limited nuclear war, immediately followed by all-out regional conventional war. I can't predict it will happen, only that it is for the first time a real possibility.

Meanwhile, developers of Stuxnet 2.0 are working feverishly to accomplish the impossible--defeating a nuclear power with cyber warfare. The next step is probably an attempt to shut down Iran's electric grid to disrupt command and control.

1 comment:

  1. Only time will tell (and we may not have to wait long).


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