Living in the Calm Before the Storm

The full moon is already shining down on the darkened half of the sphere, which means that we have entered the final half of Ramadan. It's time for another Middle East War update.

I've referred to this upcoming war as one between the US and Iran, or Israel and Iran. That much is inevitable; Iran will not take on 'the lesser satan' without going on to deal with 'the greater satan'. But it also appears virtually inevitable that the conflagration will extend beyond these parties. Hizbullah, Iran's proxy in Lebanon, sits across a barricaded border, armed to the teeth and with an itchy finger spasmodically tightening on the sub-ballistic trigger. Hamas is launching more and more sophisticated missiles into the populated areas of the Levant. And a conglomeration of rabid islamists either have set sail or or are making final plans to pierce the Israeli blockade of Gaza, with more bloodshed inevitable. This is shaping up to be a regional war, with the US and Israel on one side and everybody without a standing peace treaty with Israel on the other.

And now comes news that Secretary of State Hillary has scheduled 'peace talks' for September 2 in Washington. Need I point out that a Japanese delegation was busy 'talking peace' in Washington the entire time their carrier fleet was steaming its way across the Pacific to launch a devastating raid on Pearl Harbor? The talks were broken off only hours before the first attack wave took to the air. And the PLO has already threatened to break off these talks before they have even begun.

I've written a bit about how Israel may go about launching their planned and practiced attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. What I haven't mentioned are the attacks on Israel that have also been planned and practiced. For the first time since Yom Kippur in 1973, Israel will face simultaneous attacks on several fronts; and this time, from a greatly retracted battle line. Israel has given up all the land occupied in all its previous wars post-independence, other than the city of Jerusalem and the Golan Heights--both of which have long been made part of Israel proper--and a few heavily armed outposts scattered throughout the West Bank.

So far I have been reluctant to make any specific predictions about the timing, duration, or outcome of this conflagration, but at this point--the first tripwire having been passed over peacefully and the second barely a week away--I'm willing to concede that Israel may very well have chosen to allow itself to be attacked first. Should that happen, I predict that the counterattack will be devastating, like the colonies' response to the first shot fired at Lexington, or the American response to Pearl Harbor. But quicker--it will have to be. And I'll even make a prophecy about the outcome: It may take a long time, but Israel is going to win this one. I'd love to be able to predict more than that, but I don't want to be a millionaire.