My abilities to prognosticate the upcoming war with Iran are pretty dismal, as can be ascertained by clicking on the label Iran. But I did top off my fuel tank today, just before the price went up eight per cent. Here's what I'm thinking:
1. Iran already started a hot war by downing an unarmed American aircraft operating in international airspace. That's really all the grounds President Trump needed to shoot back, but he was persuaded not to. The Iranians had to know that if they attacked again, they would almost guarantee a military response, as diplomacy clearly hasn't worked.
2. Do something to America's oil supply, and you've poked her in the eye. American of course doesn't any longer depend on foreign oil herself, but her NATO allies sure do (especially with the North Sea fields drying up), and Iran has just poked NATO in the eye. Retaliation is almost certain.
3. It's a little early for a war to help the Republicans politically, so they may stall it off as long as necessary while frantically gearing up for a major action. But Britain could definitely use a distraction right now. France, Germany, and Greece would probably love an excuse to expel their Iranian guests. So I'm thinking that any united NATO action would probably come sooner than later.
This wasn't the post I was planning for September, by the way.
