Going dark?

I'm certainly not done posting on this forum, but I'm not sure how much longer I will be able to do so. The platform host is making it almost impossible to carry forward as an anomymous blog: they no longer allow me to log in just using my password, which means that I have to compromise my anonymity every time I post. Unless I can find a secure way of signing in, I won't be posting anything controversial here from now on out. So I may as well add now, that a comment which subsequently disappeared before I could approve it, noted that Donn Ketchum has quietly passed away.

Another win for Israel

For someone who’s been virtually beating the drums on an upcoming Israeli-Iranian war for well over a decade, it may seem odd that I haven’t weighed in much with that very war now having turned to a hot one. I guess the main reason is that there is so much available elsewhere, that I’d mostly be regurgitating what my readers could already find out on their own. But there’s a reason why I decided to finally weigh in, and that is that Israel’s latest move this past Shabbat was so brilliantly planned an executed on every level, it will not only go down in the annals of military exploits, but in and of itself basically elevates Israel to the level of regional superpower. Let’s briefly go over the ways in which this attack set precedents.

First of all—according to the New York Times—this is the first time in their decades-long struggle against Iranian aggression that Israel has openly admitted to attacking Iran. This signals a new boldness along with an outright stated intent to retaliate in kind if Iran decides to follow up this attack with one of their own. Iran is on notice: Look what we were able to do to you. We’re done for now; whether or not we come back to finish the job is totally dependent on your response.

Secondly, this attack came when Israel is already engaged in an existential struggle on three fronts: Gaza, Lebanon, and the Palestinian Territory. And they did it alone: no other country was openly involved either in the planning or the execution of this attack. In fact, well-known journalist Amit Segal, in commenting on this operation, specifically highlighted how it was carried out against the express wishes of the Harris-Biden administration (yeah, that’s order in which he gave the names), and that a Trump win in the upcoming election would make for an even bolder Israel in the face of Iranian aggression.

Thirdly, the level of precision at which Israel has conducted its war with Iran is also unprecedented. They had to fly over not just one, but two hostile countries to get at their target, greatly damaging those countries’ air defenses along the way to ensure safe passage back home, and while over Iran, they were able to limit their attacks to ONLY those Iranian targets that were directly involved in targeting Israel. No other attack in history has been able to to evade the “fog of war” as this one apparently has. Remember, Iran shot down one of its own airliners on takeoff during their surprise missile attack on an American base in Iraq, irrationally fearing that it was an enemy plane coming in to retaliate.

Fourthly, the success with which Israel carried out this operation has to strike terror in the hearts of any national leader contemplating a military move against that nation. Yes, Iran was able to shoot down a few missiles and drones, but were unable to touch a single manned aircraft. Their vaunted air defense system, recently purchased at great expense from Russia, was basically disabled in a single strike, without being able to inflict any damage in kind. Iran realizes that if they do anything to retaliate, their skies are open to Israeli bombs and missiles coming back to finish the job at the same level of precision they just demonstrated.

This attack was a game-changer in the Israeli-Iranian war. Will it serve to end that war? One key component to answering that question is something you probably aren’t getting from the news, and that is the massive turning to Christ that is going on right now in Iran. An estimated million Iranians have left Islam to follow the Jewish Messiah, and thousands of mosques now sit vacant for lack of attendees. Of course these new believers want nothing of a war with Israel, and increasingly the Muslim majority is losing interest in it as well. For the first time the Iranian leadership faces heavy opposition from within their borders against retaliating for this major loss of face, and who is to say what may emerge from the major shakeup that is no doubt now underway.

As someone committed to praying for the peace of Jerusalem, I am greatly encouraged by what Israel was able to pull off, and thank God that it went so well, especially with such minimal loss of life on the Iranian side. I pray they will not have to go back, but if they do, they will eliminate the nuclear threat the Iran poses to the entire region. I have no doubt now that they are capable of it: I understand that the latest generation of bunker-buster bombs is capable of penetrating through 200 feet of solid rock, and I’m sure the Iranians never ensured that level of protection when they buried their nuclear sites in the sides of their mountains.

Miller Trial Update

I'd like to give an update on Jenkins v. Miller et al, but, not having a reporter in the courtroom this time, the information I have to share is limited and maybe even a little speculative. However, from what little I have heard directly, the trial is just about through all the motions and ready to proceed, probably in Vermont despite the defendent's insistence that since all the tortious deeds took place in Virginia, that district should be the proper venue.
I do know that Christian Aid Ministry managed to get removed from the case very early on, apparently because they had no organziational knowedge of, or involvement in, the tortious action. Lisa Miller is even off the list, apparently because her daughter testified that she doesn't consider being raised by her own mother to be kidnaping. It's still "v. Miller et al" because two of the remaining defendents, Ken and Timo, are Millers. The most recent court document I could find on the case is this one, from June, in which the plaintiff requests summary judgement (it was denied). Interesting, isn't it, that the Southern Poverty Law Center, which was founded to defend civil rights advocates against persecution in the American South, is now the primary law firm for the plantiff's attempt to persecute Christians in Virgina.

One more blow against the death penalty

It has come to my attention that another chronological record had been broken--Iwao Hakamada was sentenced to death on September 11, 1968, which makes his time spent living under a death penalty the longest in recorded history--almost 58 years now. Due to the great likelihood that he was framed, no Japanese Minister of Justice has ever been willing to approve his execution, and he was actually released in 2014 pending a retrial, making his probably also the first-ever case of death row by home detention.

Israeli-Iranian War update

My longtime readers may find this title amusing: I first began predicting an Israeli attack on Iran over a dozen years ago, and finally gave it up when it never seemed to materialize. Well, it finally has, so I may as well weight in. What Israel used to attack Iran's nuclear stronghold was a stand-off missile, also known as an ALBM. Its range was just under the crucial distance to Isfahan, so what Israel did to surmount that was remarkable: They took over Syrian airspace long enough to send in a fighter armed with an ALBM, possibly along with tankers to get it back home. From there, the fighter launched the ALMB, which was able to reach Isfahan unmolested. This is significant in a number of areas.
First, it shows the ability of Israel to hit targets anywhere in Iran without having to risk having any of its planes shot down. This is huge, as the chances of being able to pull of a manned airstrike were always low enough to provide a major incentive against it. Israel now has shown that it has the means to take on Iran on its own turf. This sortie probably served more as a test platform than a real attack, and the missile used seems to have passed that test. It is almost certain that Iran was not able to intercept the missile--they would have said so if they had done so. Now they are probably frantically working to develop that ability, but Israel has also probably learned enough from this test to do an even better job next time.
Secondly--and this is also very significant--they got away with it. Iran decided that the best face-saving move was to claim that the missile didn't do any damage. No harm, no foul, no need to follow through on their promised massive retaliation. Any Iranian soldiers who witnessed the damage done are surely sworn to secrecty, and since the damage was behind the walls of the most secure site in the country, that secret won't be very hard to keep.
So for now, the tit-for-tat has probably reached equilibrium. Israel knows it can do serious damage to Iran, and Iran knows it too--this could go a long way toward keeping any further violence to a minimum. Which is exacly what Israel hoped for in this limited response to Iran's massive--but failed--attack on their citizenry, so it appears to have been a success.